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Above Average Intelligence"Call It Like You See It" - A Wide-Ranging Chat with Former PDB Briefer and Senior Intelligence Officer Beth Sanner
Above Average Intelligence"Call It Like You See It" - A Wide-Ranging Chat with Former PDB Briefer and Senior Intelligence Officer Beth Sanner
"Call It Like You See It" - A Wide-Ranging Chat with Former PDB Briefer and Senior Intelligence Officer Beth Sanner
Update: 2025-01-22
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On this week’s DSR Above Average Intelligence show, Marc (@mpolymer) is joined by Beth Sanner, former PDB briefer to President Trump and long time intelligence community senior executive. From battling imposter syndrome, the importance of building trust with principals, what CIA gets right and wrong, and the need for humility, Marc and Beth share their unique stories of time in the IC-and now in the media. Can’t miss episode!
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00:00:00
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00:00:31
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00:00:52
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00:00:56
[MUSIC PLAYING]
00:01:01
This is Above Average Intelligence, a production of the DSR Network.
00:01:08
Each week host Mark Polymeropolis is joined by leading voices in the intelligence community for expert analysis on the biggest security challenges around the world.
00:01:20
[MUSIC PLAYING]
00:01:25
Welcome to the podcast.
00:01:29
I'm Mark Polymeropolis.
00:01:30
And this is DSR's Above Average Intelligence Show.
00:01:33
Today, I'm very happy to welcome as my guest, Beth Sanner.
00:01:36
Beth is a distinguished graduate of the National Work College, earning a Master's of Science in National Security Strategy.
00:01:41
She has a BA in Economics and International Affairs from American University as well.
00:01:46
Beth held several senior leadership positions and CI's directorate of analysis, including leading the analytic effort on South Asia and surveys the deputy for analysis for Russian and European Affairs.
00:01:56
She also held analytic leadership roles for the Balkans, Central Europe, and South East Asia.
00:02:01
She was the director of the career analyst program, the training program for all CIA new analysts, and of great interest.
00:02:08
And I think what certainly she is known for in the public sphere is that she assumed the leadership for the president's daily brief in April 2017.
00:02:16
And that was something we'll certainly talk about today.
00:02:19
A very impressive 35-year career, I believe.
00:02:22
And of course, I have to note that you're a contributor for CNN, which is the rival network of MSNBC.
00:02:28
But I don't even know if -- Well, I think we should start some kind of crazy national security major podcast, even though we're on one right now, because I'm not sure how many people are watching us these days,
00:02:41
but that's a separate issue.
00:02:42
You know, I'm sorry I had to read out my whole biography there.
00:02:49
It is -- Very impressive.
00:02:51
The only thing I dispute, Mark, is that I like to say I have a master's degree in war from the war college.
00:02:57
Even though that's not true, I just like to say that.
00:03:02
I wanted to ask you something right off of that.
00:03:04
And when we kind of saw each other a couple of weeks ago, I think I mentioned this to you.
00:03:10
And we both, you know, certainly worked for the same organization.
00:03:13
But then went off into do some stuff in the media.
00:03:16
And I mentioned to you something that I certainly had, but it's gone away a bit, which is an imposter syndrome.
00:03:21
Because there were times where I'd be on the air thinking, "What the hell am I doing here with all these other folks?"
00:03:26
But then, of course, you realize you probably know a lot more than everybody else.
00:03:29
Because you have practical experience.
00:03:31
You were a practitioner of intelligence.
00:03:32
So did that -- has that ever happened to you where you're sitting around saying, "What am I doing here?"
00:03:36
But then perhaps you're like, "You know what?
00:03:38
I'm pretty damn smart."
00:03:39
And I deserve to see the table.
00:03:41
So do I have imposter syndrome?
00:03:44
Yeah.
00:03:47
I mean, first, I think a lot of women have it.
00:03:50
But I think all of us have it.
00:03:51
And so in some ways, it's like really refreshing when you hear it from someone else, especially someone as accomplished as you are, and has done some pretty badass stuff.
00:04:04
You know, but this is the thing.
00:04:06
You think I have it with CNN?
00:04:08
Well, try, you know, sitting in the Oval Office across from the Resolute -- you know, across the Resolute desk from the President of the United States.
00:04:17
Or, you know, being in a National Security Council meeting with President Bush, Vice President Cheney, Secretary of State Rice,
00:04:29
you know, the list went on, and, you know, having to give a presentation.
00:04:34
So, I mean, certainly, I think, you know, one of the things is that you can never let other people know in the moment that that's what you're going through.
00:04:45
And then my personal thing is, like, once I get started, I'm off to the races, and all of those doubts go away.
00:04:53
Because all that expertise you were talking about just, like, happens.
00:04:57
And, you know, and so you realize, like -- I mean, you just stop thinking about it, you just do your thing.
00:05:04
And the adrenaline takes you.
00:05:07
Don't you think there's also something in that, you know, you were a practitioner?
00:05:11
You know, we were both practitioners.
00:05:12
So, there is something different about, you know, a talking head or someone -- the academic world -- or think tanks.
00:05:20
But others do then actually, you know, serve as an intelligence officer.
00:05:24
I think we really do provide a unique view.
00:05:26
And guess -- you know, the other thing, too, is that what I realize is, I'm not supposed to know if I go and I talk about his ball, we'll talk about his process in a second.
00:05:34
But I'd experience running operations involving his ball, but I don't know, you know, my new show of the history of the group.
00:05:41
And that's okay.
00:05:42
You know, that's not why we're brought on.
00:05:44
You ever get that sense, too, that, you know, there's a unique value added from us that is not based on having this encyclopedic knowledge of the topic at hand.
00:05:55
Well, yes and no.
00:05:58
Like, I feel like as an analyst and as a former presidential briefer and all of that, head of the PDB, blah, blah, blah, right?
00:06:07
I think that the expectation for me is different than the expectation for you.
00:06:11
Okay, fair.
00:06:12
Yeah.
00:06:13
I think that, you know, the case officers, former case officers that go on, there is an expectation that you're talking about it in a different way.
00:06:22
But for me, they really do expect me to have all of that encyclopedic knowledge.
00:06:27
And what I find really maddening is that especially the people planning the shows who are great, I mean, they're fantastic people, but it's like, they don't realize that I need to prepare.
00:06:39
Yeah.
00:06:40
And I need to prepare for myself because I still feel this enormous responsibility given my roles that what I'm saying is as correct or thoughtful or well-informed as possible.
00:06:58
And so I don't know a lot of that stuff sometimes, but I am like texting my friends who do.
00:07:05
Right.
00:07:06
You know.
00:07:07
Sure.
00:07:08
Look up stuff on Wikipedia.
00:07:10
I mean, you know, who knows?
00:07:12
You know, Wikipedia used to be just trash, but now it's like not bad.
00:07:17
I will admit, I've done that.
00:07:19
I was on set one time and they asked me a question.
00:07:21
I knew nothing about it.
00:07:22
And they said, we're on in a minute.
00:07:23
And I looked down.
00:07:24
I was like, oh, my God.
00:07:25
And so I looked up the subject at hand and I said something and I came home.
00:07:29
And my wife and my son were, when I walked in the door, we're laughing.
00:07:33
And my son looks at me.
00:07:34
He's in college.
00:07:35
He looks at me.
00:07:36
He goes, Dad, you don't know what the F you're talking about.
00:07:38
And I said, I'm like, yep.
00:07:40
Did I, did I, did I play it off?
00:07:42
Okay, he goes, yeah, but mom and I were laughing because they're like, he doesn't know anything.
00:07:47
And it's good that you have people around you also who keep you honest about it.
00:07:52
Oh, yeah.
00:07:53
Right.
00:07:54
Isn't that important?
00:07:55
I think it's really important.
00:07:56
Let me, let me jump in quickly because you mentioned before in our, in our, you know, a very rudimentary green room, just about what's the stuff that's happening in the Middle East.
00:08:07
And often times on, on the podcast, we talk about current events to start off with.
00:08:11
And so yesterday it was pretty extraordinary day.
00:08:14
And, you know, well, for a lot of reasons, there were, there were hearings going on on the hills about nominees.
00:08:22
And also the announcement of a, the hostages or ceasefire hostages deal.
00:08:27
Let's, let's just quickly start off on the, on the nominees piece.
00:08:31
And, and I don't want to get too political on this.
00:08:34
But I, but I will say that it seemed to me and, and I think both of us had to watch some of these, in detail, but then comment on it.
00:08:41
But, um, it, you know, it is dependent on the person and the personality.
00:08:45
You know, I watched the raccliffe hearing.
00:08:47
This is for CIA.
00:08:48
Uh-huh.
00:08:49
Designed it.
00:08:50
Um, and he gave kind of a, what, whether you'd like John raccliffe or not, he gave a little mini tutorial on FICE the 702.
00:08:57
Um, I mean, he, you know, so he knows what he's talking about on some of these issues.
00:09:01
And while there were some, you know, he was, you know, there were some challenging questions.
00:09:06
Um, uh, you know, it's also clear that he met with every Democratic senator on the, on select committee on intelligence.
00:09:12
And then you contrast this.
00:09:13
Let's just kind of say with some of the other hearings.
00:09:16
Um, and I think I guess, I guess my question to you is, well, first of all, you know, what was your reaction to some of them?
00:09:21
But as someone who actually, you know, had, had experience as a brief or dealing with these people, I mean, their experience, you know, does matter.
00:09:29
Does it not?
00:09:30
Well, you know, I am, uh, maybe a dinosaur, you know, the last of the Dodos, I feel like sometimes that I believe in institutions and I believe in expertise.
00:09:45
Um, but you know, as I get older and I look at, um, Congress, I'm starting to really also change my view on term limits and age limits.
00:09:55
So, you know, I'm like, okay, but yes, there are limits to that.
00:10:00
And not all expertise is created equally.
00:10:03
Um, but, you know, John Radcliffe is, it's so funny because, you know, he didn't make it through his first confirmation hearing and the Trump administration.
00:10:14
Right.
00:10:15
Um, seen as not qualified.
00:10:17
And he did six months, you know, as DNI.
00:10:21
Um, and there's a contrast there with a lot of the other nominees.
00:10:26
But, you know, Radcliffe is qualified.
00:10:29
Oh, yeah.
00:10:30
Right.
00:10:31
And would I tell people about my, you know, I'll be a very limited experience with him.
00:10:36
I mean, I can't say that I know him really, really well or that we're close.
00:10:41
But I mean, he is a professional.
00:10:44
He was a prosecutor.
00:10:46
He like every lawyer I've ever met can read and absorb material.
00:10:52
That's how you get through law school.
00:10:55
And so it doesn't surprise me at all that he knows all about 702.
00:11:00
And then he's thought through and talked about these issues.
00:11:04
Um, and I think that, you know, that will relax a lot of people.
00:11:09
And I also think that it will, um, Radcliffe, when he goes in, he's going to be, and he's had conversations, I'm sure.
00:11:18
But I have this feeling that he's actually, um, already surprised at how much better CIA is today that it was four years ago.
00:11:31
Because the Ukraine war, you know, he talks about getting back to basics, the Ukraine war forced CIA to do a lot of that stuff on operations.
00:11:42
Be creative.
00:11:44
Um, you know, look at recruiting.
00:11:46
And the way that that's happening, like, I just think that there's a lot more going on there.
00:11:51
Um, then there was four years ago.
00:11:53
So I think that there will be a lot of people who will really welcome his approach.
00:11:58
Um, to be less risk averse.
00:12:01
Don't you?
00:12:02
Yeah, so the risk averse part is something that, you know, I've heard constantly, but the, I guess, and you can go down this.
00:12:08
You can talk about this the whole podcast, but, but in terms of, um, being risk averse, you know, to change that is just not a change in mentality.
00:12:17
You also have to have a change in capability and, and, you know, as I was leaving.
00:12:21
Yes.
00:12:22
The ubiquitous technical surveillance environment, the UTS environment, I mean, it's really harder for us to run operations.
00:12:28
And so, and I, you know, I've said this openly, I've had this, I can talk about it.
00:12:32
I've had it cleared by, uh, by the publication review board.
00:12:35
Um, but I, you know, I think I don't know how much we can run operations from official US government platforms.
00:12:41
I think we have to go back to using non-official cover, and it's really a sea change.
00:12:45
And there's a lot, there is a risk difference, but that's going to take, you know, someone new coming in.
00:12:51
Um, because there's a lot of case officers out there who then wouldn't be able to go in the field, uh, unless they're declared to liaison, but to run unilateral operations in the UTS environment.
00:13:00
Um, and that, that's where, uh, and that's what he's talking about, you know, we need to kind of improve human.
00:13:05
Um, it's going to be hard and he's not walking in with an infrastructure that's there already.
00:13:09
So that'll be really interesting.
00:13:11
I agree, and I think that we would be kidding ourselves if we don't understand that that both China and Russia are exporting the technologies around the world that makes that kind of,
00:13:24
um, surveillance on case officers, um, dangerous in lots of places it never was before.
00:13:30
But, you know, I, I do think all that matters.
00:13:33
Um, I thought that Pam Bondy, uh, showed that she knew what she was talking about, um, and so, you know, that's great.
00:13:43
I, I think you can contrast it with hate sets who didn't meet with all any democratic.
00:13:48
Well, that with read, um, the ranking minority, um, but he didn't meet with any other Democrats.
00:13:56
Why?
00:13:56
I think as he didn't want to have those conversations, they ever has no clothes, but, you know, he does have things that Trump appreciates and, you know, maybe the communication skills and other things will,
00:14:08
will help him through.
00:14:10
I mean, not knowing what the ASEAN countries, you know, again, does, does anyone off the street have to know that no, but someone who's going to be secretary of defense probably should know about some of our key allies.
00:14:21
Especially because of the Philippines and what's going on there, I mean, I think that I feel like you have to be kind of, um, not, you know, I mean, he's not paying attention to foreign affairs in his daily life.
00:14:33
And that, that, that just showed you have to log the hours as my dad used to say.
00:14:39
Um, just a quick bit on, on, on the Middle East, um, what are your thoughts?
00:14:43
I guess as of, you know, we're, we're still kind of waiting now.
00:14:47
Um, if this ceasefire is going to come into effect on, on Sunday, obviously, uh, there's some, some hiccups, um, at least the Israelis say they are.
00:14:57
Do you think that things have gone, you know, past the five year, past the one year line, um, where this is going to happen?
00:15:04
I do.
00:15:04
I do.
00:15:05
And the reason I do is that while I do think that there were some Hamas hiccups in terms of, um, the prisoner list, I don't think those were really serious.
00:15:16
But I think that Netanyahu, um, has some serious problems within his own coalition and not just, not just the two, uh, Vancouver and Smotridge, the two coalition partners,
00:15:28
but inside his own party.
00:15:30
And I think that President Trump is going to have to put a lot of pressure on Netanyahu to do this, but I also think President Trump absolutely wants to have this war end,
00:15:42
not just get the prisoner's relief release.
00:15:44
Yes, but he wants to get two and through phase two so he can get the other things he wants in the Middle East.
00:15:49
You know, that's someone like comments yesterday, we're exactly along those lines that actually, you know, when when Trump said that there's going to be hell to pay, um, you know,
00:15:59
everyone thought he was talking about, you know, letting the Israelis loose on, uh, uh, Hamas and Gaza, which, of course, one could argue, I'm not sure how much left there is to, to do there.
00:16:09
Actually, it was more of that he actually put pressure on on BB and Netanyahu.
00:16:15
That's what I said today, too, although I got a little pushback, um, some from some from some friends on that point, but I think that the reason that Hamas, the main reason, but there's always multitudes,
00:16:25
I think the main reason they agreed was because the US guarantee of this, of this agreement is about making sure that Israel upholds their part of the bargain.
00:16:38
And the only reason Hamas wants the agreement is to have a complete cessation of the war and only Trump can deliver that.
00:16:48
We shall see.
00:16:49
I will note that it was pretty remarkable that the, the kind of the outgoing Biden team and the incoming Trump team cooperated, uh, which should make us all feel really good,
00:16:59
Mark.
00:17:00
Yeah.
00:17:00
I mean, such a contrast to, um, you know, Carter and Reagan on the Iran hostage negotiations way back when where basically I mean, the law is that Reagan completely screwed over the Carter people went to the Iranians and said don't release these guys until I come in.
00:17:17
Let me, uh, let me switch to something that I found fascinating.
00:17:22
I kind of dug up an article from the cipher brief that you wrote a couple of years ago about telling truth to power.
00:17:28
Oh, yeah.
00:17:29
And, and the quote from it was it's better to call it like you see it rather than kind of this, this often used refrain telling truth to power.
00:17:38
But first and foremost, um, I think the listeners will be really interested on this and others that how you really did have kind of this tremendous window as a, as a brief for the president,
00:17:49
but let's, let's start off with that notion.
00:17:52
We always talked about a CIA saying, you know, call it, you know, always speaking truth to power.
00:17:56
That's kind of, it's almost overused.
00:17:58
I think you probably agree with that.
00:17:59
But what did you mean by it's better off to call it like you see it.
00:18:04
I think I'd rather, my point was call it like you see it, don't call it truth because once you start calling something truth, it means anybody who disagrees with you doesn't have the truth.
00:18:18
That's bad for a couple reasons.
00:18:21
One is it, I think it's really bad for analysis.
00:18:25
How can you see the potential that you might be wrong or that something has changed that will make your assessment wrong,
00:18:35
right?
00:18:36
It locks your brain down on there's one idea and this is it and this is truth and how a little yeah that angels are singing and bless this and it's all great.
00:18:46
The other thing I really think is it's just attitude.
00:18:50
And I think it's a total bus kill to sit across from someone who says that, you know, this is the truth and doesn't listen and engage on a difference of you.
00:19:04
And, you know, we don't deal in black and whites.
00:19:08
We deal with a lot of grays in intelligence analysis.
00:19:12
Rarely do you have, are you dealing strictly with facts?
00:19:16
You know, undisputable facts.
00:19:19
When you have that, yes, you can declare truth.
00:19:22
But most of the time we're dealing with assessments.
00:19:24
And so I just think it's, it's bad practice, but that doesn't mean and I don't want people to think that I'm saying we shouldn't stand up really strongly for what we assess.
00:19:34
We should, we shouldn't, you know, compromise our integrity in any way.
00:19:39
I just think that labeling these things as truth is corrosive.
00:19:44
How much in your role as a PDB briefer, I guess that one of the probably most fundamental aspects of the job was to establish a level of trust with your principal,
00:19:55
whoever it may be.
00:19:57
But that's, you know, that's earned, of course, right?
00:20:00
It's just not, it's just not, and then of course he can be broken quite quickly also.
00:20:03
So what was your approach to that?
00:20:05
I mean, as you're walking in to the oval or I mean, obviously you've had, you've had experienced briefing other principles, not just president Trump.
00:20:13
But that trust, how important is that element of trust?
00:20:16
I'm really glad you framed it that way because trust is really, it's the whole, and it's a lot.
00:20:23
I mean, it's the thing because without trust, why would anybody listen to you?
00:20:30
Right, they have to trust that we are following through on what the statute says and what the statute says is we provide objective, timely, relevant information without regard to policy preferences,
00:20:44
which means we're going to sometimes say things that make you mad.
00:20:47
But we're also going to say things that, you know, we just assess and we again, you call it like you see it, they have to trust that you're going to do both of those things.
00:20:57
And I think it's everything.
00:21:00
And when I love about the PDB, and you know, the PDB effects, as you were saying, not just president, but like all the national security cabinet members and the deputies and the senior military people and a number of other people.
00:21:13
And so, you know, dozens of people and the PDB role of that briefer, it's like the embodiment of that trusting relationship and it's what makes it work because you can have president Trump stand up and say,
00:21:28
you know, the intelligence community needs to go back to school, their deep state, all that stuff.
00:21:34
But if he sees me there smiling in front of him and making jokes with him and listening to him and saying when I'm wrong,
00:21:47
which I did when I was, and also pointing out when I thought what he was saying wasn't quite right.
00:21:55
That's the whole thing.
00:21:58
So I just think that that's so important.
00:22:04
You cannot, you know, it's hard to be mean to the person who's sitting there and obviously, obviously trying to be helpful.
00:22:13
Right, right.
00:22:14
Well, I think also that, you know, at least I mean, I certainly have had experience briefing seniors and it's been nasty, but in general, it's not, you know, it's, it is kind of a,
00:22:25
you know, it's a, it could be a one on one, but it's a much more kind of personal relationship.
00:22:32
I don't think I wanted to ask you and I was joking.
00:22:34
This is how pathetic.
00:22:35
I'm going to sound really pathetic here.
00:22:37
I remember I pinged MSNBC this morning and I was like, you know, I haven't been on for a little bit.
00:22:42
I'm like, what's going on?
00:22:43
Are you all mad at me and stuff like that?
00:22:44
And of course, they responded to like, you know, there's wildfires in California.
00:22:48
Like, what are you doing?
00:22:49
There's a lot of full of myself, which is good.
00:22:52
Again, it's a lot of humility, but that has to do with access.
00:22:55
And, you know, so I, you know, I was like, okay, I'm not on as much as I'd like to because I like the role that I have there.
00:23:01
But how about with your principal, you know, your access to the president would kind of waxes and wanes it a lot of times.
00:23:09
It's not because he doesn't like you or she doesn't like you, your principal.
00:23:12
Hey, maybe there's a stuff going on, but did you ever have that feeling like, hey, I have not seen the big guy or the big gal for a little bit of time.
00:23:19
Like, what's going on?
00:23:20
Is it me?
00:23:20
Is he pissed?
00:23:21
Is he mad?
00:23:21
I mean, does that does that actually come into your thinking of must?
00:23:24
I mean, that's a natural human reaction.
00:23:26
That's his story about fairly early on.
00:23:31
The session was over, you know, and I was there with Gina and center of coats was there as the DNI at that time.
00:23:40
And everybody got up and I, and I walked out and the door shut behind me.
00:23:51
I was the only one who walked out, Mark, and the door shut behind me.
00:23:55
And I said to Madeline, who was then, you know, the person who watched over the oval.
00:24:02
And I said, you know, what the hell just happened here?
00:24:06
And I can't what, you know, and she's like, you should just go back in and I'm like, yeah, I can't do that.
00:24:13
Right.
00:24:14
And then I realized I was walking across to the executive office building where our office was.
00:24:20
And I was thinking to myself, what are you thinking?
00:24:26
You are operating on pure ego.
00:24:32
Yeah.
00:24:32
This isn't about you.
00:24:34
Right.
00:24:35
And what would being and being in that room do for you?
00:24:40
Okay.
00:24:41
Maybe I'm missing something.
00:24:45
Right.
00:24:46
All right.
00:24:48
Whatever.
00:24:50
I could ask later.
00:24:52
Right.
00:24:54
But like, actually, it is better for me not to be in that room.
00:24:55
It is better for me to not be like, you know, in these conversations where someone can get mad at you.
00:24:57
You're kind of inner circle.
00:24:59
I don't want to be a person that can be fired.
00:25:03
I want to be the person who just comes in, does the job and comes back the next day.
00:25:10
And I realize, like, that's actually what this is about.
00:25:12
And you got to get your head straight, Beth, because this isn't about you.
00:25:16
And I let myself drift a little bit.
00:25:18
And so I do think that you have to have these checks on yourself about your ego and your insecurities.
00:25:26
And if you can keep this kind of mission first and that customer is the person who matters, that's why you're here.
00:25:34
It reminds me, there was times where I was in the field and I was in a leadership role and a new ambassador came.
00:25:40
And one of the things I would say to the ambassador was, you know, what people don't realize is the CIO officer, the CIO station.
00:25:47
Actually, you know, of course we report back to the Langley to see I headquarters, but the ambassador is the president's representative.
00:25:53
We work for that ambassador.
00:25:54
If the ambassador doesn't like it, they can send you home.
00:25:57
And no one's going to save you from this.
00:25:58
And that's fine.
00:26:00
A lot of a lot of agency officers in the field forget that.
00:26:03
But I remember saying to, you know, if there was a new ambassador coming in, I would say, you know, if you have a problem with me or anything we're doing, just let me know.
00:26:11
I mean, I do work for you.
00:26:12
There's the same kind of attitude is.
00:26:17
And I think that's, that's, that's really important to have.
00:26:18
I always think back.
00:26:19
And maybe this is stories true or not, but I tell it all the time.
00:26:23
And, and this was a, I guess it was, there was a small plane that crashed on the White House lawn.
00:26:29
That's the Clinton administration.
00:26:31
And the joke was that was Jim Wolsey, the CIO director, trying to get in to see president.
00:26:35
Exactly.
00:26:36
He never got in like twice.
00:26:38
And it's crazy statistic.
00:26:41
It's crazy.
00:26:42
And at that period, too, that was Clinton.
00:26:45
And nobody briefed Clinton from CIA on any regular basis.
00:26:51
His briefer did not get in to see him there.
00:26:55
And so we're really privileged at CIA and ODNI and the whole intelligence community when any of the principles decides that you are worth their time.
00:27:08
And you have to value that access because that two way street of listening to them means that you're going to be able to support them better because you know how they're thinking what they're worried about.
00:27:19
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00:28:59
That's 100% true.
00:29:03
I'm just thinking back to times where I had much more limited experiences.
00:29:08
Obviously you did this day in and day out.
00:29:12
Let me ask a quick question to you.
00:29:16
It's something that I actually believed in.
00:29:18
I was maybe the middle and then the latter stages of my career after a lot of time in the war zones, conflict zones and that has to do with integration of the analytic and the operational side of the houses within CIA.
00:29:31
Whether it was I did a lot of work and worked in the counterterrorism center and then times in Iraq and Afghanistan.
00:29:38
I clearly remember even relatively early on in my career, I was in the field in the middle east, we had an operational meeting, we had an analyst visiting TDI and I said,
00:29:48
you want to come to the office meeting and they said, sure.
00:29:51
I thought it was a good idea.
00:29:53
I trust this person.
00:29:54
It's ridiculous that there shouldn't be these walls.
00:29:57
And ultimately it worked out really well, but I'm going to tell you the story about this because afterwards the analyst comes back and says, I love meeting that asset.
00:30:07
I was incredible.
00:30:07
I ran a three-hour surveillance detection route.
00:30:09
That was really cool stuff.
00:30:11
So I'm actually co-opting the analyst a little bit.
00:30:14
And later on, years later, I thought about this and I was like, I really do believe that we should be integrated in some way.
00:30:21
But then I'm not so sure what I did was really positive in the long run because that analyst has to look back and not say, wow, that one source is reporting is great because I met that person.
00:30:32
And by the way, the source could go bad and maybe marked it a crappy job.
00:30:38
But now, so in some ways, I think we do have to be careful in the divide.
00:30:43
It's not that there's not a lack of trust, but in terms of being objective.
00:30:47
I love the idea of co-opting the analyst, co-opting it's a wrong word, but I get a better grade on the report.
00:30:53
Co-opting the goal with a decent office in nearest South Asian analysis.
00:30:56
I'm treated like a hero.
00:30:58
I don't know.
00:30:59
What are your thoughts on that?
00:31:00
I think it's such a great point.
00:31:07
I think that there is a reason for some separation.
00:31:13
And what's going on now with integration is, I think in large part, very good.
00:31:22
But I also think that each of the parts of the service has to have their guiding star and their basics and the things that they do.
00:31:37
And they can't let other people do those things.
00:31:41
And so sometimes I hear about like, oh, this task force, you know, it's run all by operations, people, and you know, they don't really get what I'm trying to do.
00:31:51
They're trying to change the analysis because they don't understand why I'm being more careful, whatever it is.
00:31:59
And those are good examples.
00:32:01
And the same way if you have an analyst trying to run operations and that person hasn't logged the hours and really understands what it is like to do all these things and make decisions.
00:32:16
I think it's really about collaboration.
00:32:19
And listening to each other because maybe the newbie has a good idea either side, right.
00:32:24
But at the same time, I think we have to kind of preserve again the expertise that we earned and that we learned from.
00:32:33
But like you were very early on in my career, I was overseas and and you know, and of course I went through some joint training.
00:32:43
And so all I was friends with people who were case officers.
00:32:49
And I didn't know any better that I wasn't supposed to like, you know, tell them about all my contacts and invite them to meetings and all that.
00:32:58
It just seemed like a normal thing for me to do.
00:33:01
I'm not sure if my higher ups back at headquarters knew I was doing that would have agreed, but like, you know, I'm still friends with that particular former case officer now,
00:33:14
you know, then to COS and and, you know, and we did better work because, but I never went to his meetings.
00:33:24
I never wanted to.
00:33:36
Let me ask you about something that perhaps I've been too critical of at times, and that has to do with kind of errors in analysis.
00:33:38
And I say that because I actually I think that that the job has gotten so much harder with this kind of explosion of open source material again, the UTS environment in which it's harder to actually have case officer steel secrets.
00:33:51
And I think the work of analysis is certainly difficult, but I remember a conversation.
00:33:57
I had with Bill Burns a couple of years ago.
00:34:01
And it had to do with an issue that we're talking about.
00:34:03
I came back inside to talk to and one of the things I noted to him, I said, you know, we got really good over the years.
00:34:11
And this is a criticism by the way of both analysis and operations, but I got I said we got really good over the years.
00:34:17
And I participated in this in man hunting in the fine fixed finish mission like CIA can frankly that I, you know, what I'd say this to, you know, when I talk to university groups, people are RFI, but we can go kill someone anywhere around the world.
00:34:28
If you use that human intelligence, then, then, you know, signals intelligence IS are together with capability.
00:34:34
We're really good at that.
00:34:36
But I'm not, but I think that they're because we got so good at that.
00:34:39
And there's finite resources, you know, we, you know, we're not as good at both operations and analysis.
00:34:45
And I look at, you know, there's analytic calls that were missed.
00:34:52
And only when an analytic call is missed, I think it's, it's when I say the fault, you know, you look to the analyst too, but then you also have to look to the collection.
00:35:01
And the me down we got great at the whack and people, which I took part in and I was proud of that, but I think there was a cost to that what's your, what's your thoughts.
00:35:10
You know, I think that the whole war on terrorism and, you know, kind of rewired the brains of so many people.
00:35:23
And, you know, that was very, very important for that mission, but it also meant that we train generations of case officers and an analyst to be thinking about problem sets and to be solving problem sets that aren't the same.
00:35:39
And, and literally have different skills than great power competition.
00:35:44
Let's just say, you know, dealing with China, dealing with Russia, all these things, you know, it's like an example.
00:35:52
You know, a lot of young analysts loved being in the field still do right now they're in their mid mid or upper levels.
00:36:01
And they got that adrenaline rush of being in the field and loving that instant gratification work.
00:36:10
Difficult work, important work, morally sometimes challenging work, right, really, you know, you'd use every part of your being when I was head of South Asia analysis,
00:36:22
it's a satisfying difficult work, but different.
00:36:26
And so now we have a lot of people whom I think are not necessarily well prepared to do the kinds of things that we're doing.
00:36:36
And that's a problem.
00:36:37
And a lot of our senior managers don't know how to do a lot of things like I was visiting with a group the other day, I mean, it was a while ago, but it was like political analyst on some part of the world and I'm like,
00:36:51
well, what does the Constitution say about that?
00:36:54
They did not know.
00:36:55
And I'm like, how can you be a political analyst on a country and not have read the Constitution?
00:37:00
Right.
00:37:00
It's kind of a basic thing.
00:37:02
Right.
00:37:02
And look, you know, we should be able to accept these criticisms of when we miss things.
00:37:08
I noticed Tom Cotton, who's now the new Marco Rubio as the Republican co-chair of SSCI and, of course, the ranking member.
00:37:18
And he blamed the United States, he blamed, sorry, CIA, you blame CIA for intelligence failures on New Orleans,
00:37:28
terrorist attack, Syria, and maybe Ukraine, I don't remember with the third one.
00:37:36
And I was like, I'm sorry, but let's just talk about that for a second, whatever was the third one, it didn't make me blink because it was like actually true.
00:37:46
But the first one is about a homegrown violent extremist who has never had contact with a foreign intelligence, I mean, a foreign terrorist group.
00:37:57
Oh, okay.
00:37:58
So you're saying that we CIA failed because CIA is not spying on Americans?
00:38:05
Give me a break.
00:38:06
I don't think that the American public wants us to do that.
00:38:09
The second thing on Syria, it's like, come on, even the Syrian HTS did not believe or think for a moment that they were going to be able to go into a lepo.
00:38:26
And then go immediately swing around and in the next week take over to mask because they had not, they did not have that as a thought in their head and neither did the Turks.
00:38:36
So how are you supposed to read that?
00:38:39
But I do think that there's this really important thing about will to fight.
00:38:44
And we are consistently missing that, missing the failure of the will to fight as more, I think, than seeing when people are willing to fight.
00:38:57
And certainly that was the case for Ukraine.
00:39:00
This is the case for Ukraine.
00:39:03
And not defending CIA on this, I've been critical of CIA and lots of things, but we also don't have an embassy in Damascus.
00:39:13
And so in Syria, it's not only much more difficult, but it's not really a, it was not a priority for, for a long time.
00:39:20
There are finite resources.
00:39:21
I mean, that's one of the things that that kind of concerns me as well as were you surprised, I just, it's just popped into my head.
00:39:27
It was over this, a couple of months, maybe a month or two ago, I had a discussion in London with the head of the British intelligence and he said 20% of CIA's budget now is now is focused on China.
00:39:36
Were you surprised that he actually said that out loud?
00:39:40
I missed that particular quote.
00:39:43
I, I think it is a little bit weird to say, because one could argue than that it should be higher actually.
00:39:53
There are people who certainly would say that's not enough, but it also is like one of the big challenges is how do you even measure what your budget is on China?
00:40:03
Because if you have assets and collection and maybe it's not human, right, but it's like other things, how do you even measure global collection?
00:40:17
Maybe it's easier for CIA, but it's certainly hard for NSA or NRO.
00:40:24
If you were, if you were walking in, I actually, I don't know, I don't know if they've announced who is going to be the briefer for, for President Trump.
00:40:31
But if you were, if you were walking in there, I guess it's a little bit different now because he's not an incoming president.
00:40:38
But did you, you know, because I would say that the second or the once a someone who's been elected to the highest office in the land starts receiving the PDB isn't there kind of an oh shit moment.
00:40:48
Frankly, when you see the level of threats and the, you know, the kind of the vast number of very serious subjects, I guess you also could tailor it depending on who the principle is,
00:40:59
you know, how much can someone kind of consume.
00:41:03
I guess the overall question, you know, and this is going to sound very simple, but you know, it seems to me the world's, you know, there's, there's a lot of a lot of things going on.
00:41:11
Is that a kind of a scary document that, you know, Trump's going to receive on the 20th or he's receiving briefings already.
00:41:17
Yeah, he's receiving briefings already and and what's interesting about the transition period is that the new president receives what the current,
00:41:27
I mean the incoming president, the president elect receives.
00:41:30
What the sitting president receives and maybe with a few, you can add a few things, but generally you are not supposed to be generating new pieces for the president elect.
00:41:43
There's only one president of time.
00:41:45
And so what they get is like, you know, they're walking into chapter, you know, 10 of a book and maybe be more appropriate to give them the prologue.
00:41:57
But in the case of Trump, because he was already president and he has been paying attention and he's meeting and speaking with a lot of leaders, he doesn't need the prologue.
00:42:08
Um, he might need some context, but the briefer can offer that.
00:42:12
So I don't think that he's having any any, you know, like from that zero to 60 kind of moment, but he did publicly say, and I love this quote, he said, the world's going a little crazy right now.
00:42:26
He gets it,
00:42:37
right.
00:42:46
I mean, he gets that this is harder.
00:42:46
I mean, the level of difficulty is higher than it was in 27 years.
00:42:46
I agree, totally on that.
00:42:46
I think that, and this is, this is me just, you know, spitballing this, but I think Mike Walts and had the incoming national security advisor is going to play a pretty serious role.
00:42:46
Yeah.
00:42:47
And I have been very impressed with what Walts has said publicly on a lot of different things.
00:42:55
I mean, he was just talking about the importance of Indo-Pacific a lot allies at a USIP event, US Institute piece event this week.
00:43:04
Um, and how important it was, August and all of these relationships.
00:43:17
Um, he has not criticized the Biden administration in a lot of ways.
00:43:17
He's worked hand in glove.
00:43:17
I mean, I think it's he and Sullivan who figured out how they were going to work the Middle East issue together.
00:43:22
So, um, you know, he's a professional and and and you have Susie Wiles in the chief of staff role.
00:43:31
And gosh, you know, it will be really fun for me.
00:43:34
I would love to actually go and and have had that opportunity to give a briefing with Susie Wiles there with her professionalism, right.
00:43:43
So it's not all, um, I think we can kind of have these caricatures of what it's going to be like.
00:43:51
It is not going to be like the Biden administration.
00:43:55
It's not going to be like the first Trump administration.
00:43:58
It's going to be somewhere in between.
00:44:00
And one other piece too, is that, you know, if it's going to be up to President Trump, if he wants to receive the PDB or not, maybe it just goes on, you know, uh, it's not a row.
00:44:09
You think you will.
00:44:10
Okay.
00:44:10
It will unless unless he hates his brief.
00:44:13
But then I think they'll get a new brief.
00:44:15
Yeah.
00:44:16
And he will.
00:44:17
And I think that he will do it for more than one reason.
00:44:20
I think he will do it because he actually enjoys it.
00:44:23
He gets, you know, if it's a good brief, or he'll get something out of it.
00:44:28
Um, but I also think that they don't want to be seen as not taking the PDB.
00:44:33
Yeah.
00:44:34
Well, you know, I think that it's going to be interesting to see if I don't know who the DNI will end up being.
00:44:40
Certainly, Radcliffe is going to, you know, we'll be confirmed by the time this, uh, this show comes out, but it will have that same type of arrangement where you have not only the brief, but also the DNI and sometimes the CI director altogether.
00:44:53
Always, I mean, it was typically.
00:44:55
And I think his expectation will be that John Radcliffe will be there every time.
00:45:00
And it will be every day.
00:45:02
And I don't think it actually needs to be every day.
00:45:04
I think a couple times a week is actually fairly good.
00:45:06
Although now given all the stuff going on, I would say, you know, three times a week is you need that.
00:45:12
Um, but Radcliffe and the DNI were always, I mean, the CIA director and the DNI were always there or their deputies, unless there was something going on.
00:45:23
Something caught my, caught my attention and I have no idea that anything about this.
00:45:28
Well, maybe I do a little bit, but, but I can't say it has to do, but so Trump at one point maybe a week or two ago said, you know, he's really looking forward to the CIA being very involved in the border with Mexico.
00:45:39
And everyone was talking about.
00:45:41
And I think that, you know, someone briefed him on something or some capability.
00:45:46
So I think, you know, it's clear that that just came absolutely out of nowhere.
00:45:51
You know, and I think it might be is that the new ambassador to Mexico was his ambassador to El Salvador and he's a former special forces and CIA person.
00:46:03
There you go.
00:46:04
So clearly, it didn't come out of the book and he watched old episodes.
00:46:09
It's one of the two movies, Sicario and, you know, I don't know.
00:46:13
I literally get back after that.
00:46:14
I was like, I got to watch those movies again.
00:46:16
That's funny.
00:46:17
It's gonna be that too.
00:46:19
He likes to watch movies.
00:46:20
This is, this has been a delightful conversation.
00:46:22
I want to end with one quick thing because I think it's something that that I, I really enjoyed doing.
00:46:28
And that's almost the notion of passing the torch to the next generation.
00:46:33
You know, how much contact you have, you know, with students with college kids who are interested in the intelligence community and, you know, how you can kind of tell them about your life as an intelligence officer and why,
00:46:44
you know, working in the national security space can be so rewarding.
00:46:48
I think you are.
00:46:49
You have done that in the past or you're continuing to do so.
00:46:53
And, you know, is it, is it as rewarding, I guess, as it certainly has been for me.
00:46:58
Yeah, I speak all the time to classes because I, um, all my friends seem to teach these classes and shut professors and they need someone to come in and do the PDB or the policy relationship or whatever.
00:47:14
So I mean, I'm doing one.
00:47:16
I think next week or the week after and I'm actually teaching myself a class on briefing.
00:47:24
It's a weekend skills class because I thought, uh, I won't screw that up.
00:47:29
I could show up for that.
00:47:30
And it's six hours a day for, for the two days on how to do good briefings and I love that.
00:47:38
Yeah, I was with our former head of counterterrorism who's kind of a legendary figure who could be a very graphic times and we're down at the White House one time briefing on a counterterrorism operation.
00:47:52
And I guess I was not doing a particularly good job and he looked at me on the way out.
00:47:56
Actually, he interrupted me during the briefing told me to basically zip it.
00:48:00
I was pissed on the way out.
00:48:01
I was so angry.
00:48:02
I remember when I came back that the chief operations the counterterrorism center was waiting in my office because he knew how mad I'd be.
00:48:10
But afterwards the head of counterterrorism center called me and he said, look, you're a great field case officer and he goes and you don't know Jack anything about this life in DC and you're a crappy breather.
00:48:20
So, you know, my advice to you is is learn out of brief and he wasn't wrong to be honest.
00:48:26
But it's it is a really important skill.
00:48:32
And I have to say like, you know, I got better in that job with president.
00:48:38
But I didn't I think that I, you know, I was okay in the beginning because I brief a lot but I got better.
00:48:46
And it is certainly a skill.
00:48:48
Well, you'll be doing this to the great favor.
00:48:51
And again, I think it's the idea of passing the torch to the next generation.
00:48:56
We need to make sure that, you know, when I say kids, while they are kids in college, but even young professionals do consider national security as a career.
00:49:05
Beth, that's unfortunately all the time we have for I want to thank you for coming on.
00:49:09
It was a delightful conversation.
00:49:11
I hope you're consider coming on again.
00:49:13
I want to thank everyone out there for listening.
00:49:15
DSR will be back later this week with more of our regular schedule podcasts.
00:49:19
And we hope you'll join us for them and then join me again for the DSR above average intelligence show.
00:49:24
Next week, Beth, Sandra, that was, that was wonderful.
00:49:27
Thank you so much for coming on.
00:49:29
And, you know, maybe in a month or two, you can have you back and we can see how the world has fallen apart or not.
00:49:36
Thanks for having so much fun talking to you.
00:49:41
I really appreciate it.
00:49:44
Thank you for listening to Above average intelligence hosted every week by Mark Polymeropolis.
00:49:51
Above average intelligence is a DSR network production.
00:49:56
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